Tools of "Deterring Aggression": A New Model for the Syrian Opposition in Managing the Battle

 12/06/2024

The Syrian armed opposition, during the "Deter Aggression" battle launched on November 27, 2024, demonstrated a groundbreaking approach to military operations, effectively employing psychological warfare to undermine the regime. Through innovative measures and unprecedented messaging, they succeeded in weakening the regime's morale, prompting defections, and fostering neutrality within its military and social bases. The most notable strategies included:

• Guaranteeing the safety of regime personnel and officers: The opposition issued "temporary protection" cards to ensure no retaliatory actions would be taken against their holders, pending political stabilization and the launch of the anticipated transitional justice process. Throughout the conflict, opposition fighters adhered to strict codes of military conduct, prohibiting retaliation against prisoners and regulating their treatment. This level of discipline, observed uniformly across all sectors and fighters, was unprecedented.
• Avoiding civilian harm during offensive operations: By prioritizing civilian safety, the opposition countered the Syrian regime's narrative, which painted them as barbaric and terrorist groups. This approach not only increased defections within the regime's ranks but also exposed the regime's sectarian policies toward its own military and civilian bases.
• Ensuring continuity of civilian services and humanitarian responses: The opposition implemented measures to prevent chaos in civilian areas, creating a perception of stability in a short time frame. This reduced the likelihood of mass displacement or migration, offering reassurances to regional and European stakeholders.
• Preserving state institutions and infrastructure: The opposition provided personnel and employees with the option of safe withdrawal, ensuring institutions were neither destroyed nor compromised. This demonstrated to local and international communities that the opposition could assume leadership and management of these institutions effectively.
• Safeguarding minority communities: Reassurances were provided to Christian, Ismaili, Shia, Alawite, and Druze communities, supported by concrete measures to ensure the safety of their regions and personal security. Promises were made to uphold equal rights for all segments of the population.
• Protecting the Kurdish community: The opposition extended reassurances to the Kurdish population, safeguarding their rights and the security of their properties and regions during the conflict. Negotiations were initiated to address the situation of Kurdish fighters in Aleppo, offering them the choice to remain or relocate to Raqqa without facing harm.
• Neutralizing the regime’s allies: The opposition adopted a pragmatic approach toward Russia and Iraq, offering political guarantees to protect their interests. In contrast, their rhetoric toward Iran aligned with regional and Western objectives, emphasizing the exclusion of Iranian militias and influence from Syrian territory.

In conclusion, these military operations emphasized psychological warfare to unprecedented levels, aiming to isolate the Syrian regime from its military and civilian support bases. This approach accelerated the regime's collapse in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. By combining deterrence strategies with administrative and military professionalism, including the use of advanced weapons such as drones, the opposition presented itself as a viable alternative to the regime. This marked a significant shift in governance and military dynamics, positioning the opposition as a credible force for leadership.

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Translated from: Jusoor for Studies