The Capture of Hama: The End of "Useful Syria" or the Beginning of the Regime's Downfall?

 

The Capture of Hama: The End of "Useful Syria" or the Beginning of the Regime's Downfall?

12/05/2024

Abdulnasir Alqadri

In a historic moment for the Syrians, the "Deter Aggression" factions entered the heart of Hama, declaring control over the city after three days of intense fighting against Syrian regime forces and their allied militias. This victory echoes the pre-1963 era, when the Baath Party seized control of Syria, passing through one of the most brutal massacres, mass arrests, and forced displacements in Abu al-Fidaa city in 1982, and culminating on December 5, 2024.

Following the announcement by the Military Operations Administration, which leads "Deter Aggression," of full control over Hama and much of the surrounding countryside, attention has turned to operations moving toward Homs, bordered by the southern countryside of Damascus. This advance brings the factions closer to Damascus, Syria's political capital, marking a significant step toward the regime's ultimate downfall.

What Is Left of the "Useful Syria" Project?

The dramatic collapse of the Syrian regime in Idlib province, followed by the fall of Aleppo and Hama, appears to have marked the end of many of the regime's long-planned projects.

In early 2016, President Bashar al-Assad introduced the term "Useful Syria" to describe six key provinces: Damascus, its countryside, Homs, Hama, Latakia, and Tartus. He vowed to defend these areas with all his power, viewing the remaining provinces as less strategically important.

At that time, large parts of Aleppo, Idlib, northern Hama, and rural Homs were controlled by Free Syrian Army factions. Despite this, the regime paid little attention to these areas, later retaking them with the support of Russia and Iran.

The "Useful Syria" project, which Bashar al-Assad pursued between 2011 and 2016, relied heavily on large-scale demographic changes, reducing Syria’s population to less than half of its pre-war size.

The regime used siege, starvation, and forced displacement deals, as seen in Daraya, Moadamiya, Zabadani, Eastern Ghouta, and rural Homs, to replace local populations with loyalist ones.

Today, Hama has fallen back into opposition hands, and its ancient citadel has become a symbol of resistance against the "Useful Syria" project, despite the regime’s relentless military operations, destruction, and displacement efforts aimed at uprooting people from their homes and replacing them with new demographics to serve Iran’s regional agenda.

 What is the significance of Hama?

Hama played a central role in the "Deter Aggression" battle, inflicting heavy losses on the Syrian regime in terms of personnel, weapons, and military equipment. Opposition factions seized dozens of tanks, rockets, artillery, and weapon depots, while also storming the headquarters of the "25th Division," led by Major General Suhail al-Hassan (the "Tiger"). Al-Hassan, who was sent by the regime to reclaim Aleppo and its countryside, was instead forced to relinquish control of southern Idlib, northern Hama, and Hama itself.

Geographical Importance

Hama serves as a critical link between Damascus and the Syrian coast, functioning as a transportation hub connecting the north and south. Its capture disrupts vital supply lines for the regime.

Economic Role

The city is home to vital agricultural and industrial resources that are crucial to the regime's economic stability. Losing Hama would deprive the regime of an important economic lifeline.

Political Symbolism

Hama has long been considered a strategic city by the regime, acting as a barrier against opposition forces moving toward the coastal regions. Its control has been integral to the regime's ability to maintain dominance over Syria's heartland.

Historical Symbolism

Hama carries significant historical weight due to the 1982 massacre, when tens of thousands were killed by the Syrian regime under Hafez al-Assad and his brother Rifaat al-Assad. The city’s return to  opposition control represents a form of historical justice and a vindication for its residents, who have suffered decades of oppression. It also marks the end of the legacy of fear instilled by the massacre, offering the possibility of return for tens of thousands of families who have been displaced for decades.

Will Hama Fall from Bashar al-Assad’s Control?

There is no doubt that the loss of Hama represents a significant dual strategic setback for Bashar al-Assad:

Strategic Location: Hama’s capture opens the way for the "Deter Aggression" factions to advance toward Homs, directly threatening the Syrian coastal regions, which are the regime's strongholds.

Disruption of Supply Lines: The fall of Hama disrupts the crucial supply lines between Damascus and the northern regions, placing additional pressure on the regime.

Military Impact: The opposition has gained significant ground by seizing critical military assets, including ammunition depots, the Hama Military Airport, and the central Hama Prison. Losing Hama severely limits the regime’s ability to launch offensive operations on other fronts.

Political Consequences: The opposition's control of Hama marks a major strategic shift, effectively signaling the collapse of the Astana and Sochi agreements—frameworks designed to manage the conflict and stabilize frontlines between the regime and the opposition with backing from Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Hama's fall undermines these de-escalation efforts and opens the door to a broader project aimed at toppling the Syrian regime.

Russia’s Diminishing Role: With Russia increasingly focused on Ukraine, its support for the Syrian regime has dwindled. Airstrikes and ground interventions have decreased, as evidenced in 2016. Despite intense fighting around Hama, particularly in the village of Qamhana (home to the 25th Division headquarters) and the strategic Zain al-Abidin Mountain, Russian involvement has lessened.

Weakened Influence of Iran and Hezbollah: Ongoing Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah’s involvement in Lebanon, and reduced Iranian military support have significantly weakened their ground effectiveness.

Furthermore, the regime has faced mounting losses in both personnel and equipment, compounded by economic pressures and a worsening humanitarian crisis. These challenges make it increasingly difficult for the regime to recover from the loss of Hama.

On the other hand, the opposition factions have demonstrated notable military coordination and leadership, which has exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities in defending its strategic areas. The widespread support for the opposition, even among pro-regime populations—evident in Aleppo—indicates that locals are welcoming the change, with no reported instances of attacks on civilians, including those loyal to the regime.

Türkiye’s Role: As the third guarantor, Turkey is undoubtedly satisfied with these developments, remaining the primary ally of the opposition factions both on the ground and in international agreements such as Astana and Sochi. This is reflected in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s comments to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, noting that "a new phase is being managed calmly in Syria," signaling continued Turkish support for these changes.

The Next Step

Amid these political shifts and the imminent advance toward Homs, as announced by the Military Operations Administration, the residents of Homs are awaiting the arrival of the factions. This marks another clear sign that the collapse of the Syrian regime is approaching rapidly.

The regime’s dramatic decline, coupled with Bashar al-Assad’s absence from public view to reassure his supporters and forces, will likely make the capture of Homs less challenging than Hama, which posed a major military obstacle. This could also pave the way for a swift resolution, potentially allowing Bashar al-Assad and his regime to exit entirely through a rapid agreement that spares the capital, Damascus, and the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus (deemed the regime's strategic strongholds) from devastating battles and heavy casualties.

The escalating military and political pressures may further accelerate the regime's internal collapse, particularly if the "Deter Aggression" factions continue to secure decisive victories. The opposition now controls military airports, air colleges, tanks, and an array of weapons, including strategic ones that have shifted the battlefield in their favor. One key asset is the "Shaheen" battalion, which specializes in drones. This unit has dramatically altered the military landscape in Syria, contributing to significant victories for the opposition against regime forces, who have been seen fleeing multiple areas in a desperate bid for survival.

Translated from: www.syria.tv/294895