Will Israel become a thing of the past?

 By Fahmy Huwaidi

I can't answer that question, but I do have thoughts on why it's being asked, especially as the conflict in Gaza reaches its eighth month and reverberates across the globe, even sparking events at 58 universities and scientific institutions in the United States. This unforeseen development comes amidst the longstanding relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv. The only explanation for this surprise seems to be the profound impact of the October 7th earthquake, which has surpassed its effects in the Middle East, propelling us into an uncertain new era where divisions have yet to solidify, though signs of change are beginning to emerge.

We will pause for a moment in front of the scene of the American university protests, which I claim help us understand the background of the question I just posed, as they occurred in one of the strongholds of American influence, representing the main partner in the campaign to eradicate Palestinians.

The importance of these protests lies in that they have recalled the tools that American university activists have resorted to since 1968 regarding the Vietnam War, as well as the apartheid system in South Africa. They not only opposed the horrors of war and its atrocities but also pressured for divestment from South Africa, which received Western support for its white minority's racist and colonial regime. This pressure, among other factors, contributed to its isolation and the widening of political pressure for its international boycott, and consequently its fall years later.

And this is what is currently happening in the student movement in the United States, whose echoes have reached across Europe, meaning that when the events of the war exposed Israel's true face to the outside world, it lost Western public opinion, which is considered a strategic asset for it.

This is one of the explanations for the hysterical response Israel undertook in Gaza, and its realization of losing its cause. Thus, Israel's supporters in America resorted to extreme measures to confront its critics and opponents, such as isolating university presidents, threatening students in their educational future and employment prospects, and supporting police crackdowns on them, which only intensified the anger and provocation of the student movement. This overshadowed Israeli propaganda attempts to discredit the protests by claiming they are anti-Semitic or funded by Hamas and Hezbollah and alleging that Palestinians are saboteurs and terrorists.

The matter did not stop at this point, as the loss of Western public opinion has led to the growing role of liberal Jews, whose banners appeared during university protests bearing the slogan: "Jews with Palestine." These events provided an opportunity for some voices opposed to Zionism, among them those who had remained silent for many years, to rise. Renowned Canadian writer Naomi Klein expressed this sentiment in an article in The Guardian (April 24) titled "We Need to Divest from Zionism," where she wrote: "We do not need or want the false idol of Zionism, but we want to liberate ourselves from the project that commits genocide in our name."

The October 7th earthquake exposed the hideous face of Israel, which was not known to all since its occupation of Palestine in 1948. It also debunked several myths that have been propagated since then, most notably regarding its "invincible" army or its democracy, which concealed the misery of racism in the system it imposes on Palestinians. However, there are other aspects of it that have not received the attention they deserve.

Some of the repercussions of the war are still unfolding within Israel, including resignations in key positions such as the head of intelligence, the chief of staff, and divisional leaders, following the military defeat. However, I draw attention to two overlooked matters: the growing role of religious Zionism, which has become an influential force in political decision-making and is represented in the government and the Knesset. The second issue is the painful economic decline that threatens the future development of the occupying state.

Since 1977, the various factions of religious Zionism governing Israel have denied the existence of a Palestinian people, refusing to entertain the notion of a Palestinian state due to religious convictions. They assert that only the Israeli people possess the "exclusive right" to the land, making it unacceptable to cede any part of it. Consequently, they advocate for a return to occupying Gaza and expanding settlements across the territory. Simultaneously, they dismiss the possibility of a two-state solution as mere political and media rhetoric, actively obstructing any practical discussions or implementations of it on the ground.

Such positions, once viewed as radical or extremist, have now infiltrated mainstream circles in society, no longer marginal or limited, as noted by Enas Elias in the newspaper "Israel Hayom" last January 31st. As a result, students from religious schools have become a serious issue within Israel.

60,000 students at religious schools pose a problem within Israel because they are exempt from conscription and receive a salary in exchange for dedicating themselves to study, worship, and praying for the victory of the occupying army. However, civil forces denounce their exemption from conscription and demand that the army alone bear the burden of fighting, with a reward for the ultra-Orthodox for their dedication to prayer. Their chief rabbi, Yitzhak Yosef, issued statements threatening mass emigration if they were forced to join the army, especially since they represent a significant voting bloc relied upon by right-wing parties in Knesset elections.

As for the economic crisis, it is more significant. This was expressed in a study published in Foreign Policy magazine (on January 30th of last year) titled "The End of Prosperity in Israel," authored by David Rosenberg, the economic editor of the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz." He mentioned that Israelis had been convinced before October 7th that they had overcome the idea of their ancestors, who believed that their war was perpetual. This was because they had been reassured about the stability of their situation after the conflict was reduced. The Palestinians' situation under Israeli rule stabilized without granting them a state, especially after normalization with some Gulf states. Israel entered economic partnerships with many regional and neighboring countries.

This gave them a sense of security and confidence, leading to a reduction in defense spending from 15.6% of GDP in 1991 on the eve of the Oslo Accords to 4.5% in 2022. The percentage of youth exempted from military service increased to less than 50% in 2021. This signifies a significant shift in Israeli attitudes due to the Israeli army's reliance on technology and Air Force instead of tanks and infantry for deterrence.

According to Rosenberg, the reduction in military burden and the increased sense of security and stability provided a much stronger stimulus for economic growth than the rise in military spending. However, this scenario changed dramatically after October 7th.

The war's financial coverage led to a nearly 80% increase in defense spending this year, and this trend is expected to continue. October 7th highlighted for Israelis the limitations of technology and the irreplaceable role of ground forces.

Consequently, there is no avoiding the need to expand military manufacturing, extend conscription periods, and allocate more funds to weapon stockpiles. These adjustments will inevitably impact the economy, influencing economic growth, as observed early in the conflict, with credit rating agencies like Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch downgrading their outlook for Israel to negative.

I have two remaining observations; one of them concerns the fierce onslaught initiated by Israel, which has escalated to the point of committing genocide, driven by its deep-seated belief that it is a settler colony nearing its demise. This notion finds support from critical historians like Ilan Pappe and Joseph Massad, who draw parallels to the final years of other settler colonies characterized by prolonged brutality. As indigenous resistance to colonization grew, particularly during national liberation movements, the settlers became increasingly ruthless, as evidenced in the histories of South Africa, Namibia, and Algeria.

The second observation is rooted in the concept of the decline of great powers and civilizations, a topic of growing interest among researchers and historians. One prominent figure in this discourse is the French Jewish historian and philosopher Emmanuel Todd, who forecasted the collapse of the Soviet Union in his 1976 book, "The Final Fall." Subsequently, in "After the Empire" published in 2021, Todd articulated arguments for America's decline as a dominant global force. He continued his analysis in "The Defeat of the West," examining the implications of the war in Ukraine and the economic, political, and moral factors contributing to the anticipated downfall.

Upon reviewing the instances of vulnerability and the string of defeats experienced by Israel, it becomes justifiable to reconsider the notion of decline, positioning the Zionist project to be chronicled in the annals of history. Although Israel is not an empire, civilization, or a global power, but rather a sinister creation planted by the West and enforced coercively by the United States in the heart of the Arab world, it now finds itself in its weakest state since its inception.

Observing the recent events in Gaza, it is reasonable to question whether the time has arrived to reassess Israel’s classification, potentially removing it from the ranks of nations of this era, carrying its history and myths into the pages of the past.

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This article was originally published in Arabic at:

https://aja.ws/vitfhn